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The conventional wisdom is that waiting until you're older to get married will reduce your chances of divorce. But one new analysis suggests there may be a sweet spot to marrying — between the ages of 25 and 34.
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Nicholas Wolfinger, a professor of family and consumer studies and sociology at the University of Utah, looked at data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) for an analysis at the Institute for Family Studies. He found that although it used to be true that waiting until you're older was best, it may no longer be the case.
As Wolfinger notes, there are several reasons why marrying younger can significantly increase your chances of divorce. For one, teenage years are more transformative, so people are likely to go through bigger fits of change that can separate them. But it's also the case that marrying younger correlates with lower educational attainment, which heightens the risk of divorce across the board.
Does the experience of staying unmarried well past the age of 30 somehow make people unfit for a lasting marriage? It's possible to envision a scenario where this might be the case, particularly in the form of a complicated relationship history. If you've had many boyfriends or girlfriends, your exes might play havoc with your marriage. They may offer the temptation of adultery. If you've had children with one or more of your exes, there could be baby mama drama. Indeed, having multiple sexual partners prior to marriage significantly increases the chances of getting divorced. Be that as it may, the number of prior sexual partners NSFG respondents had does not explain the relationship between age at marriage and marital stability. This result suggests that the mere experience of waiting past your early thirties to get married — a so-called direct effect — cannot explain why thirty-something marriages now have higher divorce rates than do unions formed in the late twenties. Instead, my money is on a selection effect: the kinds of people who wait till their thirties to get married may be the kinds of people who aren’t predisposed toward doing well in their marriages. For instance, some people seem to be congenitally cantankerous. Such people naturally have trouble with interpersonal relationships. Consequently they delay marriage, often because they can’t find anyone willing to marry them. When they do tie the knot, their marriages are automatically at high risk for divorce. More generally, perhaps people who marry later face a pool of potential spouses that has been winnowed down to exclude the individuals most predisposed to succeed at matrimony.
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For example, Wolfinger points out that surveys show people are now delaying their marriages until they can afford it — to around the ages of 27 to 29. Since these people seem to be approaching marriage rather responsibly, they could be the ones who are most likely to succeed, explaining the sweet spot around their age.
But Philip Cohen, a professor of sociology at the University of Maryland, disputed Wolfinger's findings. Using a separate set of data from the 2011-2013 American Community Surveys, Cohen found that getting married later in life will still reduce the chance of divorce:
It's hard to say which analysis is right, given that they're using different sets of data from different time periods. But it seems like an issue that will get more debate and study as time goes on — especially if a long-accepted trend is really changing.
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Of course, this all comes with the caveat that all of this data measures general trends, not individuals' experiences. So don't freak out if you married at 21, like I did, or after 35. Every marriage is different. These charts give us more of a look at the general people who tend to marry at certain ages, rather than whether individual marriages are doomed.
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If you also believe that everyone deserves access to trusted high-quality information, will you make a gift to today? Any amount helps.Over the past three decades, there has been a steady increase in the average age of parents. Advances in fertility science mean that people can, literally, put their eggs or sperm on ice and delay the start of parenthood. Many large companies, such as Apple, Facebook and Google, now offer egg freezing to employees as part of their healthcare package. Putting off having a baby has never been easier or more socially acceptable. But is it a good thing?
Parents have a moral obligation to give their child the best start in life. But children born to mothers over the age of 35 and fathers over the age of 45 are at greater risk of having genetic and neurodevelopmental disorders, such as schizophrenia and autism, which arguably affects the child’s quality of life.
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Also, older parents are more likely to need assisted reproduction, such as IVF, which is associated with babies being born early or with low birth weight. Babies born via IVF are also at higher risk of cardiovascular and metabolic disease in later life.
If prospective parents freeze their eggs or sperm when they are younger, they can reduce some age-associated risks but not those due to IVF. The method of fertilisation in IVF with frozen eggs is intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI), where sperm is injected into the egg. ICSI can also increase the risk of birth defects in children. Using ICSI is also more common in older men where sperm motility is poor. Again, not the best start in life.
Most couples will fall pregnant after trying for a year. Although one in seven couples has trouble conceiving – and age is a big player in this. One in six women aged between 35 and 39 years of age will not conceive after one year. If their partner is over 40, this drops to more than one in four.
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IVF is seen by many as a fail-safe way of conceiving, but its success is also governed by age. For a woman using her own eggs, the success of IVF over 40 is less than 10%.
The risks of delaying parenthood have been simulated with computer modelling. If a 30-year-old woman delays trying for a baby from age 30 until 35, her chances of falling pregnant are reduced by 9%, but IVF will only compensate for 4%.
And if you want to freeze eggs, great. Except women produce fewer eggs (“oocytes”) as they get older, so older women may need more rounds of stimulation to store the eight to ten eggs needed for a reasonable chance of a successful birth – and this can be extremely expensive.
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The “motherhood wage penalty” is often cited in economic discussions about the effect of motherhood on women’s careers. It is the loss of earnings women are subjected to as they move into a non-paid job for a period of time. There is some evidence to suggest that women can earn more by delaying motherhood from their early twenties to early thirties.
But this wage penalty does not appear to be gender specific. A paternity quota of parental leave was introduced by the Norwegian government in 1993, and a study found a similar negative effect on the earnings of stay-at-home fathers.
The scientific data is clear. The “right” age to have a child according to your biological clock is under 35 for women and under 40 for men.
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More than 75% of young people underestimate the impact of age on male and female fertility – yet only 27% of doctors discuss this with patients aged 18-34 years who wish to delay childbearing for social reasons. There needs to be a greater awareness about the risks of delaying family planning, and family doctors should play a more proactive role in this.
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